Home Today's Paper Most Popular Video Gallery Photo Gallery
Subscription Blog Signin Register
Logo
Saturday, December 15, 2018 11:19:31 PM
Follow Us On: Facebook Twitter Twitter Twitter Twitter

Why a world without oil is easier

By
12th-Mar-2018       
Comments
Share your thought
Post a comment »
Read all () »

Robert J Samuelson :
Anyone who tells you that dealing with climate change is simply a matter of sweeping away the obstructionism of oil companies is living in a dream world. The real obstacle is us - our vast dependence on fossil fuels and the difficulty of extricating ourselves without crippling the world economy.
It's true that the Trump administration has withdrawn from the Paris climate agreement, making any transition harder. But the problems transcend President Trump's disengagement, as a new study from the oil giant BP makes clear.
Reading it, you might think it came from an environmental group. The study's central conclusion, writes BP chief executive Bob Dudley, is that many anti-global warming policies fall "well short of" what's "necessary to achieve the Paris climate goals. We need a far more decisive break from the past."
The study projects global energy supply and demand to 2040 to see if environmentally friendly policies make significant progress against global warming.
It assumes a larger role for "renewables" - mostly wind and solar power - and other policies that would dampen fossil fuel consumption. Consider: * Electric cars make large advances compared with a negligible role today. By 2040, the number of electric vehicles worldwide hits 300 million out of 2 billion total vehicles (roughly a doubling of today's total). More important, these electric vehicles account for a disproportionate share of driving, about 30 per cent. As a result, there's no increase in oil and liquid fuel demand for cars and light vehicles, despite an assumed doubling in worldwide travel.
There's a continued boom in solar and wind power. From now until 2040, these renewables are the fastest-growing source of energy, increasing five-fold. As a share of global primary fuel consumption, the gain is from 4 per cent to 14 per cent.
Their impact on electricity generation is even greater, rising from 7 per cent in 2016 to 25 per cent in 2040.
Electric utilities continue to switch to natural gas as their primary fuel from coal, which has much higher carbon emissions. About half the growth in natural gas consumption reflects this switching.
Against this backdrop, you'd expect significant progress in curbing greenhouse gases. Not so. Just the opposite: Total use of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal) is projected to increase almost 20 per cent between 2016 and 2040. The electric cars, renewables and fuel switching merely offset some - but not all - of the added energy demand from population and economic growth. The BP study assumes a world population of 9.2 billion in 2040, up from 7.4 billion in 2016. Over the same period, the global economy doubles its output.
What this means is that greenhouse gases are still pouring into the atmosphere, albeit at a slower rate. There's a slight shift away from fossil fuels. In 2016, these fuels provided 85 per cent of world energy. The projection for 2040 is 74 per cent, even with favourable assumptions about renewables and electric vehicles.
Virtually all the energy increase is projected to come from developing countries for factories, offices, homes, air conditioners and heaters. India and China alone account for half the increase in energy use by 2040.
Governments, says Spencer Dale, BP's chief economist, should discourage the use of fossil fuels through either a carbon tax or a "tax and trade" system. That could unleash hordes of companies and entrepreneurs to find ways to limit emissions. "If we don't like something (greenhouse gases), the easiest way to get less of it is to put a price on it," Dale says.
Indeed, this could herald a "decisive break" from the past. But it might also break public opinion, at least in the United States. How high would prices have to go to prove Dale's point? To succeed, the price increase might have to be fairly stiff - say, $2 or $3 a gallon for gasoline -and that might be far more than what would be acceptable.
Suppressing greenhouse gases is, at best, a thorny policy issue encompassing technology, atmospheric science, international relations and practical politics. Put them all together and, at worst, it could be mission impossible.
(The Washington Post Writers Group)

Tariff
Add Rate

News Archive

Inside The New Nation

Entertainment »

Mim`s new movie Thai Curry


Sheikh Arif Bulbon :End of this year is becoming something new for the National Film Award winner actress Bidya Sinha Saha Mim. At the end of this year, she has started shooting of a new movie. Now she is staying in Bangkok to take part in shooting of the movie. ...

Business & Economy »

In presence of Mohammed Monirul Moula, AMD of Islami Bank Bangladesh Limited, Abu Reza Md. Yeahia, DMD of the Bank and Dr. M. Easin Ali, Chairman of Dhaka City Physiotherapy Hospital, exchanging an agreement signing document at the Banks head office in the city on Wednesday. Under the deal, VISA and Khidmah Card holders of the Bank will get attractive discount in treatment services of the Hospital. Top officials from both the organizations were also present.


.

Cricket »

Malinga named captain for ODI, T20I series against New Zealand


Sri Lanka pacer Lasith Malinga, who until recently was out of favour with the selectors, has been appointed as the captain for the upcoming ODI and T20I series against New Zealand. He replaces Dinesh Chandimal, who led the side in the recently concluded ODI series and Thisara Perera, who captained ...

International »

US Senate votes to end support for Saudi-led Yemen war, blasts crown prince


The US Senate dealt President Donald Trump a double blow over Saudi Arabia on Thursday, approving a resolution to end US military support for Riyadh's war in Yemen, and another holding the Saudi crown prince responsible for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi.Though largely symbolic, the two bipartisan measures deliver a ...

International »

Islamic State not defeated, just transforming: Experts


Even as the last pockets of resistance in eastern Syria hold their ground, the Islamic State group is shapeshifting into a new, but no less dangerous, underground form, experts warn.Also known as ISIS, or the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, the group had long been ready to cede the ...

Editorial »

Time to avail the golden opportunity to explore Japan`s rich market


BANGLADESH wants to explore the potentials of sending skilled workers to Japan as the country is likely to open its job market for foreign workers. The matter is likely to be raised at Foreign Secretary-level talks scheduled to be held on December 17 in Tokyo.Foreign Secretary M Shahidul Haque and ...

Editorial »

Involve the youths in decision making process


A RECENT survey rightly indicated that unified and quality education system for all is imperative to turn today's youth into skilled manpower for future Bangladesh. Ahead of the 11th National Election, the survey findings clearly echoed the youth voice who emphasised meritorious teacher recruitment at primary school to tertiary level ...

International »

Pompeo says journalist Khashoggi`s death still being probed


Reuters, Washington  :U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Wednesday said investigations into the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi were still ongoing but that the United States would hold those found responsible accountable for his death.Pompeo's comments to Fox News echoed U.S. President Donald Trump's stance on the killing ...

Sports »

Memphis Grizzlies guard Mike Conley (11) drives against Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard in the first half of an NBA basketball game in Memphis on Wednesday.


.

Entertainment »

Chanchal, Shahnaz Khushi pair up in new TV serial


Sheikh Arif Bulbon :Viewers always enjoy the on screen chemistry between National Film Award winner actor Chanchal Chowdhury and popular TV actress Shahnaz Khushi. In their acted TV play or telefilm or faction play, there must have a message for the viewers. For this reason, viewers always show their keen ...

Editorial »

Outstanding performance of our farmers


FARMERS of Pirojpur district have successfully used marshlands to grow up paddy saplings which would help meet sapling shortage in the waterlogged areas during paddy cultivation. In the district, farmers devoid of sapling during the Boro season as most uplands, where Boro seedlings usually grew, have been used for cultivating ...

International »

France hunts gunman after three killed at Strasbourg Christmas market


AFP  :Hundreds of police hunted Wednesday for a gunman who shot dead three people and wounded 13, eight seriously, at a famed Christmas market in Strasbourg, on the French border with Germany.The attack took place Tuesday around 8 pm (1900 GMT) in the heart of the medieval city as the ...

City »

A faction of BFUJ and DUJ staged a demonstration in front of the Jatiya Press Club on Wednesday in protest against closure of 54 online news portal.


.

Cricket »

Mashrafe regrets not getting another 20-25 runs after loss


UNB, Dhaka :Bangladesh lost the second ODI of the three-match series on Tuesday at Sher-e-Bangla National Cricket Stadium to the Windies by four wickets. The hosts' captain Mashrafe Bin Mortaza regrets more 20-25 runs at the end of the match.Bangladesh posted 255 for seven wickets in the first innings after ...

Entertainment »

Priyanka Gope in discussion with her new song


Sheikh Arif Bulbon :It is mostly happened in case of many singers where despite having outstanding lyrics and mind blowing composition many songs do not hit among the music lovers. For this reason, many singers cannot create attention among the listeners. National Film Award winner singer Priyanka Gope has rendered ...

 
Items that you save may be read at any time on your computer, iPad, iPhone or Android devices.
 
Are you new to our website? Do you have already an account at our website?
Create An Account Log in here
Email this news to a friend or like someone
Email:
Write a comment to this news