Home Today's Paper Most Popular Video Gallery Photo Gallery
Subscription Blog Signin Register
Logo
Sunday, October 21, 2018 06:44:42 AM
Follow Us On: Facebook Twitter Twitter Twitter Twitter

Economic carrots will not work with N. Korea

By
09th-Jun-2018       
Comments
Share your thought
Post a comment »
Read all () »

Howard Lafranchi :
With President Trump's June 12 summit with Kim Jong-un back on track, attention has turned once again to what a denuclearisation deal between the United States and North Korea might look like.
As the two countries labour to reduce the wide gap between them over what denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula even means, one thing seems certain about a potential deal: Forget the Libya model, in which Muammar Qaddafi gave up his weapons-of-mass-destruction programme, lock, stock, and barrel, before receiving any benefits in return.
It's been the new White House national security adviser, John Bolton, who has pressed for a deal with Kim on the order of what Qaddafi agreed to in 2003 with the Bush administration. Even Vice-President Mike Pence started touting the model.
But it was also all the White House talk of applying that pattern to North Korea that spooked Kim and nearly jettisoned plans for the summit. The clear message from Pyongyang: We are not Libya, so citing it is a dead end.
The result? By the time Trump announced Friday that the summit he had abruptly canceled a week earlier was back on, the talk had veered sharply from quick action to gradual steps.
Trump now speaks of a "process" and a likely series of summits instead of just one, with references to incremental implementation of any accord.
Yet while the timing of any deal may now be clear - good-bye "all at once," hello process and step-by-step - there is still little clarity just a week before the leaders are to meet in Singapore on what the specific steps in any deal might be.
However, experts in North Asian and nonproliferation issues, some with decades of experience dealing with North Korea, say there are some key elements that will almost certainly be part of any deal. Moreover, many experts now say, it is likely to resemble past US deals with North Korea - including those launched with fanfare, only to collapse later.
First among key elements, the US and North Korea would have to narrow the gap between them over just what "denuclearisation" means. Bolton and others in the administration have shifted to speaking of the "complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization" of the Korean Peninsula, or "CVID" for short.
For its part, North Korea has consistently spoken of denuclearisation as a long-term and aspirational concept, encompassing the US nuclear presence on the peninsula as well as its own programmes.
"The biggest gap in all of this is how we define denuclearisation, and how the North Koreans define it," says Victor Cha, who served in the George W. Bush White House as the National Security Council's director for Asian affairs.
"Denuclearisation of the Peninsula' is a phrase the North Koreans have used for decades."
One reason the North Korea case is so complicated is that Pyongyang already possesses nuclear weapons and some sophisticated means, including long-range missiles, of delivering those warheads. North Korea openly compares itself to India, which weathered a period of international rejection of its nuclear arsenal.
Any deal would have to include a full and verifiable accounting of the North's nuclear arsenal, delivery systems, and technologies - in other words, Pyongyang would have to come clean on what it possesses in a way it never has before, these experts say.
Moreover, a deal would include a set of timelines for reducing the warheads and weapons delivery systems the North possesses - for example, the US is keen to remove the long-range ballistic missiles the Kim regime tested over the first year of Trump's tenure and which may be capable of reaching the US West Coast.
Virtually no one - including the US intelligence community in a recent assessment - sees Kim agreeing to give every piece of his nuclear programme.
 For example, Cha says convincing Kim to give up every one of his estimated two to five dozen nuclear warheads is "not going to happen," given the central place Kim sees an established nuclear status playing in his regime's survival.
But if the hurdle of defining "denuclearisation" can be crossed in a way that meets both sides' needs, experts say, then a historic deal incorporating the other key elements might indeed be attainable.
Then comes the question of arms and facilities' reduction and dismantlement. And increasingly analysts say that if the "all at once" Libya model is off the table, what has replaced it is a "step-by-step" plan that follows each step the North takes toward "denuclearisation" with an incentive - the lifting of some sanctions, the delivery of some humanitarian assistance - to keep the process going.
One thing the past month of intense diplomacy has revealed, specialists say, is that Kim appears to be less interested in the kind of economic carrots that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and other US officials have been dangling as incentives, and more focused on attaining the security guarantees that would definitively take his regime out of US cross-hairs.
US officials have been mum on what security guarantees the US would be willing to offer to the North as part of a step-by-step plan. But even before Trump began referring to a "process" last week, some US officials have hinted at a growing openness on the US side toward incremental implementation of actions - as long as a synchronised plan starts off with the bang of major action and not with easily reversible baby steps.
But even if an accord kicks off with the kind of "bang" the Trump White House wants, the pace of follow-on steps is going to be a key negotiating point, some analysts say.
Frank Aum, former Pentagon North Korea adviser now at the US Institute of Peace in Washington, notes that experienced diplomats are speaking of a 15-year timeline for achieving the Korean Peninsula's as yet undefined denuclearisation. Aum says a key part of negotiations will be "how much you can accelerate the steps right now."

Courtesy: The Christian Science Monitor

Tariff
Add Rate

News Archive

Inside The New Nation

Editorial »

Khashoggi`s brutal murder has brutally damaged image of Saudi Kingdom


The Saudi Kingdom has ultimately confirmed that writer and critic Jamal Ahmad Khashoggi was killed inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul city.  Saudi state media reported Khashoggi was killed in "fist-fight" with the Kingdom's officials inside its consulate. The announcement marked a U-turn from the Kingdom, which had previously denied ...

International »

Khashoggi criticises Saudi Prince in newly released interview


Saudi critic Jamal Khashoggi criticized Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's "authoritarian rule" shortly before his death, in an interview published following confirmation he died at the kingdom's Istanbul consulate.Speaking off the record to a Newsweek journalist working on a story about the Saudi leadership, he insisted he did not view ...

Business & Economy »

Economists sign declaration against Brazil frontrunner


AFP, Rio De Janeiro :More than 350 economists -- among them a Nobel Prize winner -- have signed a declaration saying Brazil's frontrunner to be president, far-right politician Jair Bolsonaro, is not the best choice for his country.The experts stated that Bolsonaro's leftist rival, Fernando Haddad, was "the best alternative" ...

Entertainment »

Sonakshi to play the female lead in Mogul?


A biopic based on the life of a T-series honcho Gulshan Kumar is in the pipeline, but looks like the film is facing a lot of hurdles. After the director of the film Subhash Kapoor was accused in the ongoing #MeToo movement of sexual misconduct, Aamir Khan who was co-producing ...

Entertainment »

Vidya Balan's first look from the NTR biopic


Vidya Balan is one the top actresses of Bollywood. She has the ability to captivate the audience with her performances. Vidya has already impressed the audience with her brilliant performance in the biopic of Silk Smita that was titled The Dirty Picture and now the actress is set to do ...

City »

BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir speaking at a rally organised by JAGPA–an ally of the 20-party alliances on Saturday at the DRU Auditorium demanding release of Khaleda Zia and annulment of Digital Security Act 2018 and verdict against Tarique Rahman, party's Senior Vice-Chairman.


Editorial »

European Union must challenge the undemocratic election process


THE European Union has decided not to deploy an election observation mission during the 11th parliamentary election in Bangladesh due by January 28 next year. This has been conveyed to the Election Commission in a diplomatic note. A copy of the note verbale was also handed over to the commission ...

Sports »

Los Angeles Dodgers' Austin Barnes hits an RBI single during the fifth inning of Game 5 of the National League Championship Series baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers in Los Angeles on Wednesday.


Cricket »

Ten-wicket Abbas destroys Australia for Pakistan's series win


AFP, Abu Dhabi :Medium pacer Mohammad Abbas took his maiden ten-wicket haul in a match to fire Pakistan to a 373-run win over Australia in the second Test in Abu Dhabi on Friday.Abbas followed his 5-33 in the first innings with figures of 5-62 to wreck Australia for 164 after ...

Entertainment »

Aamir Khan`s smile in new poster of Thugs of Hindostan


Ever since the intriguing trailer of Aamir Khan, Amitabh Bachchan, Fatima Sana Shaikh and Katrina Kaif starrer Thugs of Hindostan has been unveiled, there is much excitement around the film. The film is one of the biggest releases of the year and will hit the silver screens on November 8. ...

City »

Bangladesh General Students` Parishad formed a human chain on Friday in front of the Jatiya Press Club demanding 35 years limit applying for govt job.


Business & Economy »

Mamun-Ur-Rashid, Managing Director of Standard Bank Limited poses for photo session with the participants of a two day-long training on "Self Leadership, Advanced Managerial Skills & 21st Century Managerial Mindset" organized by the Training Institute of the Bank. Alkona K. Choudhuri, SEVP and Head of Human Resources Division of SBL, Md. Saif Noman Khan, Asst Prof. of IBA, DU, Md. Zakaria, Principal and Md. Amzad Hossain Fakir, Faculty of SBL Training Institute were present on the occasion.


International »

Trump concedes Khashoggi likely dead, threatens consequences


AP, Washington :President Donald Trump acknowledged Thursday it "certainly looks" as though missing Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi is dead, and he threatened "very severe" consequences if the Saudis are found to have murdered him. His warning came as the administration toughened its response to a disappearance that has sparked global ...

International »

Russians ‘will go to heaven’ in event of nuclear war: Putin


AFP, Moscow :Russians will "go to heaven" as martyrs in the event of nuclear war because Moscow will only ever use nuclear weapons in retaliation, President Vladimir Putin said Thursday."We have no concept of a preemptive strike," Putin told a forum of international experts in the southern city of Sochi ...

Football »

Chairperson of the Women's Football Committee of Bangladesh Football Federation (BFF) Mahfuza Akter Kiron speaking at a press conference at the conference room in BFF House on Thursday.


 
Items that you save may be read at any time on your computer, iPad, iPhone or Android devices.
 
Are you new to our website? Do you have already an account at our website?
Create An Account Log in here
Email this news to a friend or like someone
Email:
Write a comment to this news