Home Today's Paper Most Popular Video Gallery Photo Gallery
Subscription Blog Signin Register
Logo
Saturday, August 24, 2019 08:33:12 PM
Follow Us On: Facebook Twitter Twitter Twitter Twitter

Sanction against Iran

An early moves towards war by US

 An early moves towards war by US
photo by

By
11th-May-2019       
Comments
Share your thought
Post a comment »
Read all () »

Haider A. Khan :
With the recent military moves announced uncharacteristically by the White House first, the world is witnessing with grim fascination what could turn out to be the early moves towards a war against Iran. How plausible is this scenario and what is likely to happen geopolitically if and when the US belligerence leads to an actual military confrontation with Iran?
We have already seen this process of downward spiraling of US-Iran relations beginning with the US unilateral exit from the historical Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) without the consent from our European allies with the resulting division between the US and Europe regarding policies towards Iran. US also restored sanctions against Iran but gave some time for energy-needy allies to import energy from Iran against a deadline. Some like Japan complied grudgingly with the US orders. Others, particularly China and India went on importing Iranian energy.
Recently, the US has escalated the pressure on Iran by banning those countries still importing Iranian oil from doing so. If anyone does sanctions-breaking business with Iran they will be properly punished, the Trump administration has warmed. The sanctions may not work as well as Trump's analysts and US propaganda machine have claimed; but even their partial effects could be a call for Iran to wake up. However, contrary to the wishful thinking of Trump, this wake-up call for Iran will mean in all likelihood, not to negotiate by capitulating to US demands. The sanctions together with the most recent military moves have already produced- according to all neutral observers' reports- a "rallying-around-the flag" response by the majority of people of Iran. Contrary to the claims of some pro-US Iranian dissident groups abroad, pro-Israel lobbyists and Saudi-UAE propagandists, the sanctions have not weakened the regime politically in Iran at all. Ironically, the sanctions have isolated-indeed divided- the genuine pro-democracy critics of the Islamic Republic within Iran and have strengthened the hardliners politically.
As this further escalation using bullying rhetoric accompanied by confirming bullying behavior continues with more military moves by the US fleet and announcements from the White House- led by Bolton- the situation can only worsen. If the most recent episode is an indication after Bolton's mpvesfirst, there will soon be echoes from other parts of the US government more directly in charge of foreign policy and military matters. If that keeps happening, the Iranian hardliners will surely double down and prepare for an asymmetric war-something they have announced already as a possible scenario. Given Iran's military weakness vis- a- vis the US and its regional allies, such a response will seem to these military minds to be eminently rational in terms of military tactics. Anyone familiar with the recent developments in non-cooperative game theory will be able to understand this response as a logical deduction in the environment that the US has created with the series of moves that began with the US unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
The asymmetric response by Iran-the Iranian military strategists have made clear-will also draw in the Hezbollah and other Iranian military assets in the region outside of Iranian borders. Thus further future involvement of Syrians and even Turkey can not be ruled out at this point. Given the geopolitical strategic importance of both Iran and Syria to Russia, even if Turkey does not get involved, Russia will surely have to consider its options in terms of its long term geopolitical strategic interests. As a rising power, PRC may not become directly involved, but it is a safe bet that China will aid Iran financially and like Russia also by supplying some categories weapons-particularly aircrafts and surface to air missiles. If Trump thinks that attacking Iran will bring Chinese to the negotiating table to make further real concessions to the US, he is surely fantasizing.
This being the case, what will the US really gain geopolitically? According to political analysts, there are two groups in US high level policy making arena. Trump, it is claimed, is a transactions oriented leader and wants Iran to come to the table after suffering losses with a better deal for the US. But the details of how this could happen or what kind of deal the US could expect have not been revealed.
The second group centered around Bolton-according to the geopolitical analysts- wants to draw Iran into a military confrontation if economic sanctions by themselves do not lead to a regime change. Even in my worst case economic scenario for Iran a regime change from sanctions alone does not seem likely. So will the US or its proxies such as Israel and Saudi Arabia then engage in an actual military operation?
The very possibility is worrying. But sober calculations in light of outcomes of interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya do not seem encouraging. There is no prospect of a quick victory against Iran and any lengthy intervention will destabilize the region further. It is also not clear what the Chinese and Russian military responses in the medium run will be. The conflict may escalate into a regional war and even an extra-regional war depending on some of these responses.
Therefore, without sounding alarmist, one has to hope that Trump is bluffing even though Bolton and the neocons are not. But even if Trump exercises a false brinkmanship even when it is not necessary and will ultimately not work, in order to get the US a better deal- whatever that means- according to military logic, the Iranians will be foolish to act on the assumption that there is a substantial difference between Trump and Bolton leading to Trump's putting an end to US moves towards a war or warlike situation. To be clear-eyed about this danger, from all available evidence, the Iranian strategists are preparing to not fall into a US laid trap by acting first and provoking a US military response that will start a war. However, once they think that US is about to start bombing Iran, they will surely take what they consider to be appropriate asymmetric actions. And therein lies the dangers of a conflagaration that can easily get out of any great power's control.
(The writer is a Professor of Economics, University of Denver. Josef Korbel School of International Studies and former Senior Economic Adviser to UNCTAD. He could be reached by email hkhan@du.edu)

Tariff
Add Rate

News Archive

Inside The New Nation

Editorial »

We cannot repatriate Rohingyas without UN supervision


NO Rohingya refugees were repatriated till Thursday noon as none of them showed "willingness" to return to Myanmar. In a fresh attempt, 3,450 Rohingya people were scheduled to be repatriated to Myanmar. Before any repatriation takes place, refugees are taken to transit camps and kept there for two to three ...

Entertainment »

Chanchal, Mamo as pair can attract the viewers in film


Sheikh Arif Bulbon :In last Eid, National Film Award winner two actors Chanchal Chowdhury and Zakia Bari Mamo-starred three dramas were telecasted in different TV channels. These dramas are: SA Haque Alik’s Sorry Bolo, Sokal Ahmed’s Byaktitto Babul and Ratan Hasan’s Nobboi Din. They got the viewers attention to play ...

International »

Macron backs more Brexit talks but insists no concessions


AFP, Paris :French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday backed holding further talks to avoid Britain crashing out of the EU without a deal but rejected major concessions, as he hosted Prime Minister Boris Johnson just over two months ahead of the planned British exit.Echoing comments by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, ...

Entertainment »

Radhika Apte has given us character to remember forever


Indie Star Radhika Apte became the talk of the town for her earthy and unconventional character. It was the actress’ character from Manjhi: The Mountain Man which made us all believe in how chaos in beautiful and garnered appreciation from all across. Celebrating the highly critically acclaimed film, Radhika is ...

Editorial »

ACC fails to gain trust of common people


THE 11 ACC officials whose faulty and biased investigation led to wrongful imprisonment of Jaha Alam for three years have been promoted to senior ranks. Even the Anti-Corruption Commission's (ACC) own investigation acknowledged that Jaha Alam had to lose three years of his life in prison because these officials "erroneously ...

Cricket »

Afghanistan Test a preparation platform for Indian series: Mominul


Bangladesh will take the one-off Test match against Afghanistan as part of their preparation for the two-match Test series against India, with which they will begin the journey of ICC World Test Championship.As India is blessed with some world class spinners who could demolish any side at their home den, ...

International »

Putin says US missile test raises new threats to Russia


AP, Helsinki :Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that the test of a new U.S. missile banned under a now-defunct arms treaty has raised new threats to Russia and will warrant a response.The U.S. tested a modified ground-launched version of a Navy Tomahawk cruise missile that accurately struck its target ...

Editorial »

Muhith can't be blamed, he is part of the system


National Board of Revenue has allowed former finance minister AMA Muhith to release an imported car under the duty-free scheme meant for the Members of Parliament. The NBR on Monday issued a special order exempting Muhith from payment of all types of import duty, value-added tax and supplementary duty to ...

Editorial »

We have to see positive results in our relations with India


INDIAN External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on Monday reconfirmed his government's stance on most-hyped Teesta water-sharing treaty that remained "unchanged" and "mutually acceptable formula" for sharing water of 54 common rivers. The three-day visit of the top Indian envoy has taken place at a time when the Indian government is ...

Football »

Ribery set for two-year deal at Fiorentina pending medical


Franck Ribery has landed in Florence and will undergo a medical ahead of completing a free transfer to Fiorentina.The 36-year-old left Bayern Munich in June after 12 years at the club and will now sign a two-year deal with the Serie A side worth almost £4.1m (€4.5m) per season, according ...

Entertainment »

Swastika shuts down malicious troll like a boss


As we say, ‘no one is perfect,’ the myth of ‘perfect body’ is quite a tough role to live up to and our silver screen celebrities have always been under a constant surveillance of the hypocritical body shamers. For even an ounce of extra weight gain or a shred from ...

International »

Johnson, Merkel to face off in first Brexit talks


AFP, Berlin :British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visits Berlin on Wednesday to kick off a marathon of tense talks with key European and international leaders as the threat of a chaotic no-deal Brexit looms.On his first foreign visit since taking office, he will seek to convince German Chancellor Angela Merkel, ...

International »

US ready to resume nuclear talks with North Korea


AFP, Seoul : The United States is ready to sit down with North Korea to resume long-awaited working-level nuclear talks, a US envoy said on Wednesday.Nuclear discussions between Washington and Pyongyang have stalled since a second summit in Hanoi in February ended without an agreement over differences on the extent of ...

Editorial »

DCCs' dengue drama


AS Bangladesh, especially the capital is reeling under massive dengue outbreak, mobile courts run by Dhaka's two city corporations are penalising the residents keeping public places and government establishments hosting aedes mosquito breeding grounds out of purview.Dengue has already claimed at least 113 lives and at least 55,000 dengue patients ...

Cricket »

'Frightening' Archer won't let-up against Australia, says Stokes


England's Ben Stokes has told Australia to expect more bouncers from Jofra Archer in the remainder of the Ashes."It's part of the game and a big part of Jofra's game, being aggressive, not letting batsmen settle," said Stokes.World Cup-winning fast bowler Archer produced a hostile and compelling display on debut ...

 
Items that you save may be read at any time on your computer, iPad, iPhone or Android devices.
 
Are you new to our website? Do you have already an account at our website?
Create An Account Log in here
Email this news to a friend or like someone
Email:
Write a comment to this news