98pc chance of global recession, research firm warns30 September 2022
Staff Reporter :
As a result of high inflation, severe rate hikes, and the conflict in Ukraine, there is currently a 98.1% risk of a global recession, according to a probability model run by Ned Davis Research.
"This indicates that the risk of a severe global recession is rising for some time in 2023," economists at Ned Davis Research wrote in a report last Friday.
Economists and investors are becoming more pessimist as central banks intensify their attempts to rein in inflation, according to the report.
Seven out of 10 economists surveyed by the World Economic Forum consider a global recession at least somewhat likely, according to a report published on Wednesday. Economists dialed back their forecasts for growth and expect inflation-adjusted wages to keep falling the rest of this year and next.
Given surging food and energy prices, there are concerns that the high cost of living could lead to pockets of unrest. Seventy-nine percent of the economists surveyed by the World Economic Forum expect rising prices to trigger social unrest in low-income countries, compared to a 20% expectation in high-income economies.
Investors are also getting more concerned, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average sinking into a bear market Monday for the first time since March 2020.
"Our central case is a hard landing by the end of '23," billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller said at the CNBC Delivering Alpha Investor Summit Wednesday. "I will be stunned if we don't have a recession in '23."
Even Federal Reserve officials have conceded there is a growing risk of a downturn.
Still, there are clearly bright spots, especially in the United States, the world's largest economy.
The US jobs market remains historically strong, with the unemployment rate sitting near the lowest levels since 1969. Consumers continue to spend money and corporate profits are sturdy.
There are also hopes that the worst US inflation in 40 years will cool off in the coming months as supply catches up with demand.
The Ned Davis researchers said that although recession risks are rising, its US recession probability model is "still at rock-bottom levels."
"We do not have conclusive evidence that the US is currently in recession," the researchers wrote in the report.