Headline
** Arab countries must supply weapons to Palestinians so that they can defend themselves against Israel's brutalities ** It means to clinging to power thru elections under partisan govt: Civil society ** After JNU, students of Tata Institute watch banned BBC documentary on PM Modi despite warnings ** Country on way of fully vaccinated ** Walkways are being constructed on both sides of the canal of the Dhaka-Narayanganj-Dhaka (DND) dam at Siddhirganj of Narayanganj as the authorities took a project to develop the dam like Hatirjheel Lake in the capital. NN photo ** ‘Fierce’ battle raging in Ukraine for control of Vuhledar ** BNP asks govt to resign without delay ** FM likely to visit New Delhi March 1-2 ** Islami Jubo Khelafat Bangladesh stages a demonstration in front of Baitul Mukarram National Mosque in the capital on Friday to protest the burning of the Holy Quran in Sweden and the Israeli aggression against Palestinian Muslims. ** Shoppers in thousands throng the Dhaka International Trade Fair (DITF) at newly inaugurated Bangabandhu Bangladesh-China Friendship Exhibition Centre at Purbachal on Friday. ** 18 years of Kibria murder Trial deferred repeatedly due to lack of witnesses ** Gas supply shortage hits households, industries ** Production remains halted in 8 Ctg power plants ** Israeli violence BD condemns killing of ten Palestinians ** HC-order to ban single-use plastic items ** 532 students commit suicide in 2022 ** ‘Work of Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant will not be stopped’ ** Protests against Quran burning held across Middle East ** More delay in change will lead to more miseries for people ** Chaos between bench and bar ** Workers busy preparing stalls for the month-long Amar Ekushey Boi Mela, which is scheduled to begin on the Bangla Academy premises and part of Suhrawardy Udyan in the capital from February 1. NN photo ** USAID announces additional $75m assistance for Rohingyas ** Sugar price rises by Tk 5 per kg ** Germany, US, to send battle tanks to help Ukraine fight off Russia ** Israel army kills nine Palestinians **

Economists optimistic on global economy

01 March 2014


Xinhua, New York :
Economists said here Thursday that they are reasonably optimistic about the global economy this year, noting industrial countries will have better performance than emerging market economies.
"We are reasonably optimistic about the global economy," with stronger performance to be seen in the industrial countries, in particular the United States and to a certain extent Europe, said Lewis Alexander, managing director and U.S. chief economist at Nomura, at a meeting held by the Council on Foreign Relations, a New York-based foreign policy think-tank.
"We do see Asia and China slowing in the first half of the year and then doing better," Alexander told Xinhua at the meeting. But there are differences within emerging markets, with some problem countries like Brazil and Turkey doing worse than others, he added.
Vincent Reinhart, managing director and chief US economist at Morgan Stanley, said "global expansion is ongoing that the G4 countries accelerate and emerging market (EM) stabilizes."
"So our forecast on growth we last published is just a touch slower than what we thought six months ago. But it' s global economic expansion," Reinhart said.
"Some merging market economies will find it difficult to weather increases in US interest rates, but we think that is contained enough," Reinhart said.
Emerging market economies is having "an important stabilization," which enables most of them to weather the increase in rates, he said.
Talking about economic challenges for China, Alexander said "nothing is terribly surprising," but there is no question that there are growing financial imbalances that need to be addressed.
"The pattern of growth (in China), which has been so dependent upon first exports and then investment, needs to change to rely more on domestic demand," Alexander said.
He also said he is "reasonably optimistic over the mid-term" for China, adding that the country is on the track to make those adjustments.
With regards to the U.S. economy, Reinhart attributed the softening of recent economic data mainly to the severe weather conditions the country has lived through over the past month or so. "The basic picture is the economic landscape is frozen over.  It' s not going to thaw for another month and a half till we get a sense of what the underlying momentum is," Reinhart said.
"We think it' s mostly weather, but you' ll have to leave open the possibility that there is a little more slowing in there," he added.
Reinhart also noted that some slowing of recent data was expected after a pretty torrid growth pace of U.S. domestic private spending during the fourth quarter of last year.
Given the weak data, Reinhart and his team at Morgan Stanley had substantially revised down their forecast for the U.S. gross domestic product for the first quarter.
The U.S. economy "has been stuck in a two-percent channel," he said, adding that it will pick up, however, to two-and-three-quarters percent later.
With regards to the so-called "Abenomics" in Japan, economists expressed optimism while warning risks.
Monetary policy, which was called the first arrow of Abenomics, was a huge success, said Takatoshi Ito, professor of the Graduate School of Economics and dean of the Graduate School of Public Policy at the University of Tokyo. "It completely changed the deflationary defeat of the central bank (of Japan) to a proactive inflation targeter," said Ito, who was also the former deputy vice minister for international affairs of Japan' s Ministry of Finance.
"This is a great experiment in monetary economics," Reinhart echoed Ito' s view.
However, economists also pointed out the high level of difficulty in implementing Abenomics.
With the first arrow of monetary policy setting stage, the second arrow of fiscal policy started to bend to consolidation, which created "a policy mix," Ito said.

Add Rate