Abdur Rahman :
In geopolitics, the oil- rich Middle East has been a bubbling hotbed of conflagration for decades due to the spate of rows over oil, religious and ethnic sectarianism (Islam vs Zionism, Sunni vs Shiite) monarchies, border demarcation, important commercial waters like Red sea, Persian Gulf and constant American and Western poking nose in all important Middle Eastern issues.
American and Western relentless and wholehearted abetting Israel, an axiomatic occupation entity and master of Middle Eastern muddle, has been adding fuel to fire for quite long effusive with regional stability.
American stakes in Middle East – a geopolitical grip on the entire region in the form of military bases in different countries, reaping financial benefits in the form of amassing oil and selling weapons and Different Middle Eastern Regimes’ feeling of American support to consolidate their monarchies have been keeping America engaged here for decades.
Jerusalem, the holy city and the bone of contention among three faiths – Islam, Judaism and Christianity, has been the boiling pot for the entire region for decades.
Jerusalem, throughout its long history, has been destroyed at least twice, besieged 23 times, captured and recaptured 44 times, and attacked 52 times. Though the contention is considered among three faiths, it is actually intense between the Muslims and the Jews.
Al-Aqsa Mosque centers the conflicts specially, the Israeli occupation force’s barbarous attack on the prayer Muslims on Friday even in the month of Ramadan leads to the larger and longer conflict. In recent time, Israel triggered its deadliest and most heinous attack on Palestinians in the holy month of Ramadan on 5 April 2023 that resulted in Hamas’s response on October 7, 2023.
Since then conflicts have been reverberating around the Middle East to engulf the entire region in a wider war.
Some recent developments like killing of senior Hamas official Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut, triggered attacks by Houthis on ships in the Red Sea, Islamic State bombings in Iran and the killing of an Iran-backed militia leader in Iraq have flared up tensions across the Middle East.
The Middle East has been plagued with the throes of unprecedented levels of tension, standing unparalleled in recent memory. No fewer than four major epicenters, across the region, could fuel a wider conflagration in the Middle East.
As far as the conflict is concerned, dynamics between Israel and Lebanon, the Red Sea, Iraq and Syria have all become volcanoes of spillover confrontation from Gaza.
Red Sea: An Iran-backed Yemeni rebel group, Houthis, have launched numerous missile and drone strikes at Israel-affiliated commercial ships in the Red Sea as well as ballistic missiles toward Israel since late October.
Geared up with domestic and Iranian support, the Houthis are impervious to the pressure of Israel’s European allies and the United States.
Under such developments, US announcement of the Operation Prosperity Guardian will further escalate the tension in the region and will lead the Houthis’ efforts in the Red Sea.
Owing to this tension in the Red Sea, the shipping giant Maersk decided to suspend all Red Sea shipping until further notice and the analysts fear increased shipping costs could mount global inflationary pressures.
Iraq: On January 4, 2024, in a drone strike, the US military forces killed the leader of Harakat al-Nujaba, an Iranian-backed militia. By targeting a militia leader directly, the US military forces have triggered a larger escalation.The January 4 U.S. strike fueled an angry response by the Iraqi government which vehemently condemned the attack. Pressure has mounted on the Iraqi government to expel the 2,500 U.S. troops currently based in Iraq.
Syria: Israel has triggered attacks on Syrian regime and Iranian facilities in Syria since October 7 last year.
The Israeli airstrikes have dismantled Damascus airport and turned it inoperable. On December 25, an Israeli airstrike killed a senior Iranian general in a Shiite neighborhood in Damascus.
Earlier in December, two other Iranian generals were killed by an Israeli airstrike.
These barrage of Israeli attacks invited Iranian vow of retaliation but Israeli aggression is always faster than any dynamics in the Middle East.
Most recently, on April 1, Israel conducted a missile attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus that killed 7 Iranians including 2 IRGC generals.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian termed the attack “as a violation of all international obligations and conventions.”
All major Muslim countries and Russia have strongly condemned the heinous attack. Analysts were divided on the consequences of Israeli attack on Iranian consulate.
However, Steven Cook, an analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, saw potential for escalation.
“The IRGC can loosen restraints on proxies in Iraq and Syria, placing American forces in jeopardy again,” he said.
“The Iranians could also direct Hezbollah to escalate its attacks on Israel, which have been growing bolder and more numerous.”
And all anticipation came to a halt and Iran launched his promised retaliatory attack on Israel on 13 April 2024. Both CNN and Reuters reported that more than 300 standoff weapons had been launched toward Israel. An Israeli military spokesman specified that Iran had launched 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles. According to IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari, approximately 350 rockets were launched at Israel from Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
Through this attack, though the analysts’ confusion over Iran’s military capability to hit Israeli territory directly and Iran-Israel direct military conflict is over, their concern is growing now from grave to graver on Middle East’s being the epicenter of world war III because of US and European allies’ flagrant interest in involvement in the region and Russia’s interest in Iranian side too.
(The writer is a Lecturer in English, Birshreshtha Noor Mohammad Public College, Peelkhana, Dhaka. He can be reached at email: [email protected])
