Al Amin :
The revenue collection gap compared to the set targets for the National Board of Revenue (NBR) has expanded to Tk 18,221 crore in the first eight months (July-February) of the current fiscal year (2023-24).
The NBR attributes this widening gap to several factors, including import restrictions prompted by the dollar crisis, which have significantly impacted import tax collection.
Moreover, domestic revenue generation has not met expectations due to slow economic growth and the NBR’s challenges in addressing tax evasion.
Provisional data from the NBR indicates that during the July-February period of the current fiscal year, the government managed to collect Tk 2,26,586 crore, marking a 15.58 percent year-on-year growth, yet falling short of the eight-month target of Tk 2,44,808 crore. The NBR has adjusted its revenue collection target to Tk 4.10 lakh crore for the fiscal year.
Experts are concerned, projecting a potential revenue shortfall of Tk 80,000 crore by year-end if the current trend in tax collection persists, citing the target as overly ambitious given the NBR’s capacity and the slowdown in economic activities.
The economic downturn, driven by a dollar shortage, high inflation, and energy scarcities, is underperforming expectations, which could exacerbate the shortfall risk.
This situation might compromise the NBR’s capability to achieve its targets and those set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), according to Dr. Ahsan H Mansur, Executive Director of the Policy Research Institute (PRI).
“This divergence may lead to a further increase in the shortfall, posing a potential threat to the NBR’s ability to meet not only its own targets but also those set by the IMF,” he said.
The NBR’s provisional data reveals specific shortfalls across various wings. The income tax and travel tax wing encountered a Tk 6,843 crore shortfall, collecting Tk 72,311 crore against a Tk 79,155 crore target.
The Value-Added Tax (VAT) wing also reported a deficit, collecting Tk 88,701 crore against a target of Tk 92,368 crore, resulting in a Tk 3,666 crore shortfall.
dditionally, a shortfall of Tk 7,711 crore was recorded in customs duties, with Tk 65,573 crore collected against a target of Tk 73,000 crore.
Officials point to the decline in imports, driven by a lack of dollars and increased dollar costs, as a significant factor for these shortfalls.
An official, preferring anonymity, noted that the growth in import tax largely reflects the higher cost of imported goods rather than an increase in the volume of imports, a statement corroborated by the central bank’s statistical review.
The country’s imports saw a nearly 14 percent year-on-year drop to $44.32 billion in the first seven months of the fiscal year, with actual imports, as indicated by the settlement of letters of credit, decreasing to $44,318.38 million from $51,489.31 million compared to the same period in the previous year.
Overall, import orders fell by 4.23 percent year-on-year, according to Bangladesh Bank data.
